Deaths and confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK have been doubling every three days, and on Friday the country experienced its biggest increase in deaths so far.
Models of the epidemic give very different estimates of its potential final death toll, from tens of thousands to one published on Friday that projected a figure of below 7,000.
So how to make sense of the projections, and what do the patterns of coronavirus deaths in other countries tell us about what could come next in the UK?
Confirmed cases in the UK are doubling every three or four days. Deaths are growing faster, doubling every two or three days